New Study Suggests Chance of 'Big One' Hitting on San Andreas Fault is Higher Now Due to Last Year's Ridgecrest Quakes

RADIO.COM Staff
July 13, 2020 - 4:57 pm

A new study suggests the chance of the "Big One" hitting on the San Andreas fault is higher now because of last year's Ridgecrest quakes.

The study finds there's more stress now on the Garlock Fault which is connected to the San Andreas Fault.

Study co-author Ross Stein is CEO of the catastrophe modeling company Temblor.

"The problem is that's three to five times higher than the chances of the San Andreas rupturing before the Ridgecrest earthquake. So we are living in a time in which the chances of a great San Andreas earthquake are currently elevated even if they are still small," Stein said.

He tells KNX if a big quake hits on the Garlock Fault there's a 50-50 chance it could cause a large quake on the San Andreas.

He does say though the chance of a big San Andreas quake in the next year is still very low at just over one percent.

Stein says this is a good reminder to prepare for an earthquake.

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